Thursday 18 August 2011

Who Exactly Will President Obama Beat in 2012?

With another high profile candidate in the GOP presidential primary field and the Ames Straw Poll in the books, attention is turning back to the votes that will really matter: key among them, New Hampshire. A new poll out on Wednesday shows that despite the recent shakeup in the race with the addition of Tex. Gov. Rick Perry, Granite State GOP voters are still behind former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney at the moment.


Romney is the first choice of 36 percent of GOP voters in the new survey sponsored by the New Hampshire Journal. Romney's score is twice that of the next closest candidate, Perry, who polls at 18 percent. Following Romney and Perry is Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) with 14 percent, then Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) with 10. Businessman Herman Cain and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. both register 3 percent, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 2 percent and former PA Senator Rick Santorum rounding out the field with 1.


Romney and Perry are also the only candidates who registered a majority in favorability ratings. Romney is view favorably by 66 percent of New Hampshire Republicans against 24 percent unfavorable, and Perry is viewed in a positive light by 51 percent against 27 percent. Bachmann comes close at 49 percent favorability, but is hampered by 39 unfavorability, and other candidates have much higher unfavorables. Gingrich registers the highest with 60 percent viewing him unfavorably, and only 29 viewing him favorably.


Michelle Bachmann: She’s Sarah Palin, only smarter, more articulate, far more credible, even more radical, maybe 20% cuter, maybe 20% more crazy-eyed and for all of the above reasons, waaaaaay more scary. Way too prone to saying, um, kind of lunatic stuff, though, and almost certainly not an acceptable candidate to the moneyed interests who (thank God) still at least nominally rule and guide the Republican Party, so you have to figure her for a very likely Veep choice for someone. So, instead of talking a lot about the most interesting person in the GOP race here in the #1 slot, let’s discuss the other candidates and assign them each a Bachmann Factor.


Ron Paul: Shhhh. See link above. Ron Paul doesn’t really exist. He isn’t here. Pass it on.


Bachmann Factor: None. Because Ron Paul doesn’t exist.


Tim Pawlenty: Now, here we have (had) a sane, reasonable political candidate who just happens to be a Republican. Enough said. Go after Franken in 2014, T-Paw. That’d be fun.


Bachmann Factor: She’s too macho for him. Wouldn’t work.


Rick Santorum: His positions are now squarely in the GOP mainstream, which is pretty depressing. Mitigating factor: nobody ever votes for the guy. He remains #1 on my list of politicians who I hope someday get caught doing something immoral in a fleabag motel.


Bachmann Factor: Santorum, were he to win the nomination in some alternate reality, would need someone sane to balance him out. She isn’t his other half.


Herman Cain: Seems like a nice enough savagely right-wing pizza magnate. Still can’t figure out what he’s doing running for president. It’s a very non-traditional acting-out of a midlife crisis, dude; I mean, buy a Tesla or fund a private spaceflight startup or whatever. You’re too good for politics.


Bachmann Factor: I like these two together. On a incendiary Fox talk show.


Rick Perry: Oh yeah, a strutting Texas Cowboy-Governor is exactly what America is pining for as we stumble from the smoking wreckage of the Dubya Bush era, right? Perry certainly looks like a President. He can do the glad-handing retail politics thing. He’s having fun out there. On the other hand, there’s his paper trail. He kind of, um, thinks everything the federal government does is illegal? So of course he wants to run the, um, federal government? Okay, fine, look, we have to take him seriously. He’ll raise money. He passes the have-a-beer test. He connects with crowds. But every day since he announced has brought a new negative Perry story — threatening the Fed chairman, impugning the President’s love for America, pretending the Texas Miracle wasn’t mostly government jobs — so deep down I think he’s a flameout waiting to happen. Maybe.


Bachmann Factor: There’s a little too much loco here, but if the economy keeps on tanking, by next year the masses could very well be in the mood for some kind of psychologically violent crypto-fascist uprising, and these two together would fit the bill, wouldn’t they? I’d be writing about this ticket from an undisclosed location in rural Alaska if it actually ever did come to pass, but you can bet that they wouldn’t be boring.


Mitt Romney: (we have to skip him for now. I’ll explain why later).


Newt Gingrich: This guy actually winning the nomination would constitute among the best evidence I’ve witnessed in my life that God does indeed exist.


Bachmann Factor: Irrelevant.


Jon Huntsman: Whatever.


Bachmann Factor: Irrelevant.


Thad McCotter: I genuinely didn’t know he was running. Actually, I don’t know who he is.

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