Reporting from Istanbul— Millions of Turkish voters headed to the polls Sunday for critical parliamentary elections that will likely shape the country's constitution, its conflict with a restive Kurdish ethnic minority and its definition of citizenship.
But judging from the gigantic billboards looming from highways and buildings throughout the country, the elections are really about whether Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan should be crowned Turkey's leader for the next 12 years.
"Ready 2023," the billboards say, referring to the year marking the 100th anniversary of the Turkish republic as well as, coincidentally, how long the ambitious and presumptuous Erdogan may stay in power, if he succeeds in changing Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system.
"You only see his picture," said Asli Aydintasbas, a columnist at the newspaper Milliyet. "This omnipresence is a little scary."
In many ways the outcome of Sunday's election is preordained. Few doubt that Erdogan's Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party, known by the acronym AKP, will come in first and form the next government as it rides a wave of popular support for its relatively successful economic policies and appeal to the country's emerging pious middle class.
The liberal Republican People's Party will come in second and serve as a noisy opposition supported by the country's old guard. The Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party will add to its seats in the country's southeast and begin pressing for autonomy as the country struggles to end a 27-year armed insurrection.
Erdogan's 2011 election campaign focused on his government's economic achievements and its ambitions for Turkey to become one of the top 10 economies by 2023, the 100th anniversary of the republic, and boost its GDP per capita to $25,000 from $10,079 in 2010.
He has promised to overhaul Turkey's constitution, written in the 1980s under military tutelage after a coup, if his party wins a strong mandate.
FOREIGN MINISTER AHMET DAVUTOGLU
- Davutoglu, 52, is the architect of Turkey's "zero problem with neighbors" policy, which he explains as aiming to maximize cooperation and minimize problems with neighboring countries in order to bolster Turkey's role as a global and regional player.
As part of Davutoglu's policy, Turkey has moved to resolve long-standing tensions with Armenia, Cyprus, Syria and Greece. But efforts to improve relationships with Iran and Syria, and a falling out with erstwhile ally Israel, have raised concern in the West over a perceived shift of axis in foreign policy.
Foreign Policy magazine ranked Davutoglu, a professor of political science, No. 7 in a list of "100 Global Thinkers" in 2010, saying that under his leadership, "Turkey has assumed an international role not matched since a sultan sat in Istanbul's Topkapi Palace."
ECONOMY MINISTER ALI BABACAN
- Babacan, 44, is a founder member of the AK Party. He is regarded as one of the few cabinet ministers who have the ear of Erdogan. Babacan is respected for his commitment to fiscal discipline and his efforts to convince Erdogan to carry out economic and structural reforms. He first served as economy minister between 2002-2007, leading Turkey through a period of buoyant economic growth after a severe domestic financial crisis. He then became foreign minister.
Babacan impressed markets with his flexibility and successful dealings with the International Monetary Fund, and Erdogan brought him back as economy minister in 2009 to take over protracted negotiations with the IMF. These were concluded in early 2010 when Turkey said it did not need a new standby loan agreement.
Babacan presented a medium-term economic program in 2009 setting expenditure guidelines and looking to improve Turkey's debt dynamics. Turkey was subsequently rewarded with upgrades to its sovereign debt by all major ratings agencies, although it is still rated below investment grade.
Despite its successes, Turkey’s government faces opposition accusations that it seeks to consolidate power at the expense of consensus-building. Much of the debate among commentators has centered on whether the ruling party can secure a two-thirds majority in parliament that would enable it to push through a new constitution without the support of other political groups.
Erdogan has promised that a new constitution would include “basic rights and freedoms,” replacing a constitution implemented under the tutelage of the military in 1982. However, he has provided relatively few details on a possible new draft.
The government has Islamic roots, long a source of suspicion among secular circles that once dominated Turkey and fear that Erdogan seeks to impose religion on society.
Turkey’s leaders, however, describe themselves as moderates and “conservative democrats” who are committed to the ideals of Western-style democracy. After winning election in 2002, they implemented economic reforms that pulled the country out of crisis. The growth rate last year was nearly 9 percent, the second highest among G-20 nations after China.
Still, political reforms faltered in the ruling party’s second term. Turkey’s bid to join the European Union has stalled, partly because of opposition in key EU nations such as Germany and France. Critics point to concerns about press freedom and the Turkish government’s plans for Internet filters as signs of intolerance toward views that don’t conform to those of Turkey’s leadership.
For all of Turkey’s challenges, Sunday’s vote was an indicator of stability in a country that suffered fractious coalition politics and military coups in past decades. Voting was largely peaceful and orderly, with large crowds gathering early to cast ballots.
“We have come to the end of a long marathon,” Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the opposition Republican People’s Party, said after arriving at a polling station with his wife and son. “Today is the time for a decision by the people. We will respect their decision. There is a good mood. There is a democracy feast.
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