Obama's Gallup numbers show 12 states in play in 2012

President Barack Obama’s approval rating dipped below 40 percent for the first time, according to a new Gallup survey made public late Sunday. Agence France-Presse reports that just 39 percent of Americans approve of the president’s job performance.


The number of Americans disapproving of Obama’s performance as president is also up to 54 percent. Both figures represent the worst numbers of his presidency, AFP said. Among fellow Democrats, that number is 72 percent, compared with 34 percent among independents and just 13 percent of Republicans approving of the president’s job performance.


Obama’s approval rating had previously peaked at 53 percent in the weeks following the death of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Bin Laden was killed by U.S. special forces in Pakistan in May.


Now, numbers are down again following Standard & Poor’s decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating, as well as further reports of slowing growth in an already ailing economy. Gallup also attributes the numbers to Obama’s handling of the debt ceiling and budget crisis in Washington.


But assuming Obama can move his national numbers back upward, then the 16 states plus the District of Columbia in which he had approval of 50% or better this spring can reasonably be considered his electoral base. They have 215 electoral votes.


At the other end of the scale, there were 22 states where Obama’s approval was below 43% during the spring. Those states, plus Mississippi, where his approval was 45%, but which he stands virtually no chance of carrying, constitute the GOP base, with 168 electoral votes. (Mississippi is a special case because of the racial polarization in its voting; Obama is extremely popular among blacks, who make up almost 40% of the state’s electorate, and very unpopular among whites in the state).


There are 12 states in between. Not all of them will end up being in play – some are likely to prove out of Obama’s reach early on. And although some states may drop off the list, it’s unlikely that many will move onto it. One exception could be New Hampshire – a state that Obama carried in 2008 but in which he is currently quite unpopular. It could become competitive again, depending on the GOP nominee. There are also a few states in Obama’s base that moved sharply toward the GOP in the 2010 election, notably Wisconsin and Minnesota, which the White House still has to worry about.


For now, however, the battleground dozen in the middle of Gallup’s rankings have 155 electoral votes, and to win, Obama would have to capture 55 of those while holding his base. The battlegrounds, which also appear on lists drawn up by strategists in both parties, are two perennial swing states, Florida (29) and Ohio (18); Iowa (6); three in the South, Virginia (13), North Carolina (15) and Georgia (16); and five states in the West, Oregon (7) plus a grouping in the interior West made up of Nevada (6), Arizona (11), New Mexico (5) and Colorado (9). For those states, Obama would have to depend on a large Latino turnout. The Southern states would require a heavy turnout among blacks plus support from moderate-to-liberal suburban whites.


Gallup’s numbers come from its daily nationwide tracking polls, which surveyed 89,965 adults, age 18 and older, between Jan. 2-June 30.