The front-runner in national opinion polls, ex-Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, is not actively taking part.
And Texas Governor Rick Perry may upstage the Iowa poll by announcing his candidacy at a South Carolina event.
The first official Iowa primaries in the race for the White House are still several months away but the non-binding results of the straw poll in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday may have an important role in shaping which Republican will take on Barack Obama.
The poll is essentially a state Republican fund-raiser and turnout in the past has ranged from 14,000 to 23,000.
With Mr Romney not actively involved in the straw poll, analysts say the key battle may be between Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann, who are vying for the social conservative vote.
They clashed in Iowa on Thursday night in the third televised debate of the 2012 Republican race.
Mr Pawlenty repeatedly criticised Ms Bachmann's lack of substantive success in enacting a legislative agenda, and accused her of "making false statements".
Ms Bachmann hit back, accusing Mr Pawlenty of pursuing policies that sound "a lot more like Barack Obama".
Mr Pawlenty has been struggling in national opinion polls and may need a strong showing in Iowa.
The other four candidates who have paid to take part in the straw poll are representatives Thaddeus McCotter and Ron Paul, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and businessman Herman Cain.
According to both the campaigns and straw poll veterans, a large gathering would be indicative that more attendees showed up than just those delivered by the campaigns – an organic turnout of true believers which would favor Michele Bachmann.
At the top of polls here, Bachmann would benefit from a broader crowd where the composition of voters is more reflective of the actual caucus-going electorate.
The Minnesota congresswoman would also likely fare better in an expanded universe because her organization is not as sophisticated as that of her top rival here, Tim Pawlenty.
With cars dedicated to ferrying voters back and forth from suburban Des Moines to Ames, a hard count of over 2,000 dedicated supporters and a phalanx of over a dozen longtime operatives whipping votes, Pawlenty has an operation that could succeed if turnout is limited to Republicans who came on the dime of the various campaigns. But the former Minnesota governor, who has been on TV for much of the last month but still lags in polls, also has a ceiling.
Similarly, the fewer the GOP activists, the more Ron Paul stands to benefit. With a loyal but narrow following among libertarian-leaning Republicans, Paul could pull off an upset if attendance is down. While some attendees might, as they have in the past, ride one candidate’s bus only to arrive and support a rival, the Texas congressman’s backers are unwavering.
Paul campaign manager Jesse Benton said they bought 2,750 tickets from the state party, but Paul rivals contend the number is higher than that.
“If it’s a low turnout, Ron Paul has got the organization – he’s spent five years working on it,” said Iowa GOP Congressman Steve King. “He should not be underestimated.”
A broad rule of thumb: The closer turnout is to 20,000, the better it looks for Bachmann. The closer to 10,000, the more likely it is Pawlenty or Paul could knock off the Iowa frontrunner.
The enthusiasm in the revived Republican Party here—and the zeal for defeating President Obama—could prompt something toward the higher number.
“What’s different this time is that there are going to be people who turn themselves out,” said Brian Kennedy, a former state GOP chair and Mitt Romney backer. “It’s not like in the past where you had to be on the bus.”
Kennedy said a fellow Bettendorf Rotarian who had not previously been a super-engaged political activist approached him this week and asked about getting a ticket to Ames.
“My premise is we’re going to have people who just show up,” said Kennedy.
Other Iowa Republicans, however, are more skeptical about attendance.
John Stineman, who ran Steve Forbes’s 2000 Iowa campaign, noted Ames turnout has traditionally been manufactured entirely by campaigns.
Would we have to retrench in some fashion? Probably, but I don’t think that’s gonna happen,” Pawlenty said. “I think we’re gonna do very well.”
In a brief interview following his appearance, Pawlenty had an air of resignation about Saturday.
“Look, you get to a point where you’ve done everything you can and it is that whatever will be, will be,” he said.
For her part, Bachmann spent Friday racing around to retail stops in central Iowa and urging Republicans to support her at Ames.
“We’re trying to be all across Iowa; we’ll be working until late this evening,” she said in Indianola. “We’re trying to get to as many Iowans as we can.”
Taking in his candidate’s speech there, Rollins wouldn’t predict victory but said the more voters that show up the better for their prospects.
“We’ve guesstimated….somewhere around 15,000,” he said of total turnout. “Our goal would be to have 5,000 or 6,000 votes – then we’ve had a good day.”
But Rollins touched on what is, short of overall turnout, perhaps the most important unknown hanging over Saturday: “I don’t know how many people Paul is bringing or where he’s bringing them from.”
Benton, Paul’s manager, set a modest goal: “The other guys will be tough, but we are confident we can finish in the top four.
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