So does Perry's impact on the GOP race.
The Texas governor, who formally declares his intentions during a 1 p.m. speech in Charleston, S.C., is an instant contender because of his record, his appeal to conservatives, and his ability to raise money, in the view of some Republicans.
"He is a powerful politician on the stump, and he's fearless," said GOP strategist Rich Galen.
Other Republicans are taking a wait-and-see approach.
Whit Ayres, a pollster for candidate Jon Huntsman, said Perry will "certainly make a big splash" when he announces today.
"Whether he sinks or swims will be determined," he added.
Perry is appearing before RedState Gathering, a conservative group that will no doubt be receptive to his anti-Washington message.
In addition to South Carolina, Perry makes appearances this weekend in New Hampshire and Iowa, which hold the first two contests in the Republican race.
Galen predicted that Perry -- who has never lost a political race in a Texas career spanning a quarter-century -- could well emerge as the prime challenger to perceived Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney.
Among the reasons: Perry can talking about Texas being a national leader in job creation. He is already known among many conservatives, thanks to his criticism of the Obama administration. The Texas governor is the only southerner in the race, and the South has become reliably Republican in recent decades.
Perry also figures to be able to raise a lot of money, thanks to his roots in Texas.
The Lone Star state could also be something of a problem for Perry. Some voters might compare Perry to his predecessor as governor, George W. Bush, who left the White House an unpopular figure, even among Republicans who criticized his spending record.
(It may be worth nothing that Perry and Bush partisans have clashed in Texas over the years).
Religion could be an issue in some states. A week ago, Perry hosted a prayer service at Houston's pro football stadium, and he is an outspoken Christian.
That won't be much of a problem in Iowa or South Carolina -- states with early contests -- but Galen said, "I'm not sure how well it plays in New Hampshire or Florida.
Friends and foes alike are scrambling to assess Perry’s record as Texas’s chief executive, and there is plenty to review. As the nation’s longest-serving governor, he took office as the dot-com bubble was bursting and a year before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. By the end of the decade, he was overseeing the state during the worst economic crisis in a generation.
Early reviews for Perry, especially among conservative opinion leaders, have been glowing. Columnist George Will was so impressed by the number of jobs created in the state that he coined a new term: “Texas Exceptionalism.” Some national polls of Republicans already show the Texan running second to establishment candidate Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, and he is also popular among tea party activists.
Perry’s record should, in fact, send chills down the spines of his GOP rivals. The governor can boast not only of unparalleled job creation but of a distinctly conservative record, including several high-profile fights to ward off tax increases. In other words, he can argue that he is both a true believer in conservative principles and that he has gotten results. But his tenure also carries blemishes—among them deep inequality in income and some of the poorest educational results in the country—that call his record into question and could sink his chances in a general election.
Texas’s economic success can be summed up in one word: jobs. The Lone Star State has had a solid job-creation record during the past decade, certainly in comparison with the anemic growth in most other parts of the country. It weathered the recession far better than the country as a whole and emerged from the economic downturn as the country’s most vibrant employment hub.
Prerecession, jobs in Texas grew at an exceptional clip. From December 2000 through December 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment in Texas increased by 10.4 percent, or almost 1 million jobs. That was more than double the nationwide increase of 4.1 percent over the same period.
When the financial crisis hit in 2008 and devastated markets across the United States, Texas held its own. From December 2007 through June 2011, the state actually added about 60,000 jobs, an increase of 0.6 percent. That stability contrasted starkly with what happened in the rest of the country: Those three-and-a-half years saw nearly 7 million positions eliminated nationwide, a 5.3 percent decrease. Other states similar in size to Texas, which has more than 25 million residents, fared worse. California lost over a million jobs, a decline of 7.4 percent. And since the recession officially ended in June 2009, Texas has produced more new jobs than any other state by a wide margin.
For conservatives, there’s a straightforward explanation for the Lone Star State’s surge: low taxes. Mostly because Texas doesn’t levy a state income tax, its tax burden is the fifth-lowest in the country, according to the Washington-based Tax Foundation. And the tax bill for business is much lower in Texas than in the most other states, especially in the large, liberal-leaning states like California and New York.
“When you look at states with major populations as well as geographic size, I think Texas is at the top of the list as far as conservative governance,” said Talmadge Heflin, director of the Center for Fiscal Policy at the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation in Austin. “People have been able to make investments without fearing the Legislature coming down three years down the road and yanking the rug out from under them.”
Perry routinely crows about luring jobs away from comparatively high-tax states such as California, as he did in July when EA Sports, producer of the top-selling video games Madden NFL and NBA Elite, announced that it would be locating 300 new jobs in Austin. “This isn’t rocket science,” he said. “You keep taxes relatively low. You have a regulatory climate that’s fair and predictable, a legal system that doesn’t allow for over-suing, and you have institutions of higher learning … who allow for these innovative programs to be developed because of the curriculum that they put in the schools.”
Whether Perry has a right to brag or should simply be thankful for his luck is another matter. Texas is rich in oil and natural gas, and his tenure as governor has coincided with a decadelong surge in energy prices. Employment in natural resources in Texas has increased by 63 percent since 2000, the fastest growth of any sector, according to BLS data. It’s also worth noting that the three states with even faster job growth over the past decade—Alaska, North Dakota, and Wyoming—are also big oil-and-gas producers. “Even though Texas is not as dependent on oil and gas as it was say in the 1980s, that is still one of the major drivers of the economy,” said Mine Yucel, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “That helped keep us afloat.
Texas had a conservative government before Perry, and it will have one after he leaves. The question is, how much credit—and blame—does the governor deserve for Texas’ record during his 10 years in office? The Lone Star State has traditionally had a weak chief executive, although most analysts say that Perry’s long tenure and unbeaten string of political successes (his triumph over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in last year’s GOP gubernatorial primary being the most recent) have made him a force in state politics. His influence was never bigger, perhaps, than in the last round of budget negotiations, when the state, which approves budgets biannually, faced the aforementioned $27 billion deficit.
Buoyed by a wave of new, tea party-inspired legislators, Perry not only didn’t raise taxes but left billions of dollars in the state’s rainy-day fund, too. He also helped cut more than 5,000 state-government jobs. All in all, he was able to gouge government spending the way many Republicans in Washington can only dream of. Perry’s bulldog approach has been the highlight of his tenure, said Heflin: “That’s been his trademark—to provide leadership to say, ‘Certain bills that reach my desk are going to be vetoed if they get beyond our ability to pay.’ ” Others have more doubts about Perry’s impact, even if they don’t doubt that he’ll be able to take credit for Texas’s success. Miller compared him to the manager of a talented baseball team. “Texas has done well under him, and he can claim some sign gains vis-à-vis the rest of nation,” the GOP lobbyist said. “But he’s still managing the New York Yankees. He took over an economic engine that’s historically quite strong.”
Even if the real story is more complicated, Perry argues that his record validates the GOP argument that less government spending spurs job creation—a belief that has dominated conservative economic thinking since the recession. That’s a potent message in a Republican primary where voters are hungry for a business-savvy candidate who can revitalize the economy. His state’s bottom-line job numbers may also encourage moderate Republicans, while his limited-government philosophy will appeal to tea partiers and other activists on the GOP’s right flank.
Perry might also present the clearest contrast with President Obama. Unlike Romney, Perry didn’t pass a health care bill that included an individual mandate and that was designed in part (along with cost reduction) to reduce the ranks of uninsured residents. Unlike two other credible challengers for the GOP nomination, former Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Jon Huntsman of Utah, Perry didn’t support legislation to curb climate change. (Pawlenty has openly called his past support of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions a “clunker.”) Conservatives who demand purity in their GOP candidates might have their man in Perry. And unlike other conservative favorites, such as Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., or Alaska ex-Gov. Sarah Palin, Perry can point to actual results.
The real danger for Romney isn’t just Perry’s economic record—it’s that he can pair it with a pitch to social conservatives. The Texas governor, an evangelical, has already spoken openly about the importance of religion in his life and in government, calling for governors from the other 49 states to join him in Houston to pray for the country. It’s a message that might turn off some moderates, but Perry’s economic chops could put the minds of some others at ease.
Questions about income inequality, the uninsured, and high school graduation rates aren’t likely to pose many problems for Perry in a Republican primary. They could pose headaches in a general election, but that’s a problem he wouldn’t have to worry about until later.
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